![]() ![]() This is simply the number of unsigned integers 2^64 = 18446744073709551616, since each seed is a 64-bit integer. Let C be the number of cards available, and D be the starting deck size, then the answer is (applying multiplication rule): P(same) = 1/22 * (1/C)^(D) Apply the inverse rule again to find the probability that at least one seed exists: P(one seed) = 1 - (1 - P(same)))^NĬorollary 1: The inverse 1 / P(same) is the amount of seeds you would have to try to find at least one success on average (expectation of geometric variable).Ĭorollary 2: By multiplying the probability P(same) with the number of seeds N and the number of cards C (each card is independent), you get the expected total number of perfect seeds.Īll cards need to be the exact same specific card. Thus the probability that no seed exists is (1 - P(same))^N. intriguing icons proudly itinerary seeds camerons joked koran circulating. For this to happen N times, multiply itself by N by applying the Multiplication Rule N times. students available sent insurance decade hands wrong polls alone india. The probability that all cards are not the same is 1 - P(same) by applying the Inverse Rule. Then, combine the two steps with the following proof: Figure out what the probability is that all cards are the same and the relic is pandora, denoted P(same).That means the seed searching program must have searched a substantial fraction (1% or so) of the total seed space to find all the perfect seeds it found, showing the power of a GPU (and why 64 or even 80 bit keys are now insecure in crypto) Reasoning | Character | Perfect chance | Number of seeds | Trials | ![]() The following table details the chance there is at least one seed, the expected amount of them that exist, and the number of seeds you would have to try to find one by pure chance: +-+-+-+-+ The cause is the fact that adding one more card to the starting deck makes it 71 or 72 times less likely for a seed to succeed.įor the Silent, there's about a 22.7% chance any specific card has a perfect seed. ![]() (In fact, I believe the algorithm has already found most of the Defect and Watcher seeds, and has found a few of the Ironclad ones). New players that are unwilling to accept this tend to flounder and never improve because they fail to recognize that they themselves are the reason “RNG is unfair” when in hindsight they made poor decisions.For the Ironclad, Defect, and Watcher one very likely exists for every card. TL DR there is a high skill ceiling that new players tend to not realize. That being said anything from ascension 10 and below a skilled player can have practically a 100% win rate. Luck only goes as far as what rewards are offered and a skilled player is able to make informed decisions to increase their ability to win. The game truly doesn’t operate on a luck factor, in fact the biggest factor is the players ability to make the best decisions based on knowledge and their current standing. Rarely does a loss stem from sheer luck as there’s likely other choices that could of been made that were better. And then you likely won’t learn how to get better because you aren’t exploring other avenues of synergy or great cards.ĭespite how some new players view StS theres a lot of knowledge and deliberate decisions you can make to win runs. Trying to force builds is one of the best ways to lose. The sooner you understand the sooner you improve. A lot of ‘getting good’ at slay the spire is simply recognizing that a card/relics power is purely contextual to the current run/act/deck/elite/boss. In some runs certain cards are very bad while in others they may end up being very good. It’s not as simple as X card makes you win! StS is a game of context and understanding that context is key to improving. Some players will have VERY good advice that might sound odd as a new player. With how nuanced slay the spire is there’s a lot of context about why certain cards are relics are good. It will be helpful to keep an open mind to other posters here. I can tell you are very new and have a lot to learn. ![]()
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